Azerbaijan is massing Soviet-era aircraft to bait Armenian air defences
Satellite imagery of Azerbaijan's Yevlakh air base shows a growing fleet of An-2 aircraft, which will likely be used as bait drones in a war with Armenia.
The Azerbaijani military is building up their fleet of An-2 aircraft at Yevlakh air base, where dozens of An-2 biplanes are already based. In previous conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the single-engine biplanes were used as baits to expose Armenian positions as well as to overwhelm and confuse Armenian air defence systems. Recent high-resolution satellite imagery shows at least forty-one aircraft are currently at the air base, which is located less than 150 kilometres from the border and is the home base of Azerbaijan’s An-2 fleet.
The Antonov An-2 is a Soviet-designed utility aircraft that has been used for a wide range of roles throughout its operational history. With an 18-meter wingspan and a length of 12 meters, the biplane can take off within 170 meters while landing in just over 200 meters. On top of these low-speed capabilities, the aircraft is designed for operations in remote areas by using a minimum of complex systems. These capabilities and its overall design have made the An-2 an attractive option for various militaries around the world.
When serving as a military aircraft, the An-2 was, and still is, mostly used for reconnaissance and transport roles. However, during the Vietnam War, North Vietnamese forces used the An-2 as a light attack platform as well. Later during the Yugoslav Wars, the low-speed capabilities enabled the An-2 to evade radar detection by simply flying below the speed of objects that radars were programmed to not show on the screen. However, after the Serbian forces received SA-6 air defence systems and a shootdown in December 1991, the low-speed flights ceased. Still, the An-2’s capabilities enable infiltration of troops and low-altitude airdrops behind enemy lines, even in airspace defended by modern air defence systems. This (likely) one-way mission is, for example, something North Korea has planned for the opening hours of an all-out conflict with South Korea and has repeatedly demonstrated during exercises. The low cost, high payload size and weight, as well as the high availability of An-2 aircraft makes it an attractive option for one-way missions.
The An-2 in previous conflicts
Azerbaijan is not the first to use unmanned aircraft as decoys/baits. During the 1982 Lebanon war, for example, Israeli drones were sent ahead of armed fighter aircraft. When the SA6 missiles targeted the drones, the Israelis identified the radio frequency used by the homing systems of the missiles. This intelligence was then used for effective countermeasures in the actual strikes by manned aircraft. While this is a much more technical method compared to Azerbaijan’s use of the An-2 drones, it does highlight the history and effectiveness of so-called bait drones in modern warfare.
During the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, rumours about Azerbaijan’s widespread use of An-2 aircraft first surfaced. Amidst prevailing confusion about its role, it eventually became clear that the old An-2s were used as drones to expose the location of Armenian air defence systems. The systems were subsequently targeted by more advanced systems such as Israeli-made Hermes 450 drones, which are also based at Yevlakh air base. While exposing the location of Armenian defences is its primary purpose, unexploded bombs at some crash sites indicate the An-2s were intended to cause damage as well. Another theory is that the explosives on the aircraft were intended to ‘force’ Armenian forces to intercept the An-2 as it could be a serious threat, especially compared to an unarmed An-2 which only needs to be shot down if it approaches populated areas.
How exactly the planes are operated is unclear, but according to Scramble, the An-2 aircraft takes off normally, after which the pilot points the aircraft at Armenian positions. The pilot then locks the aircraft’s controls and bails out to safety. However, it is important to note that other reports suggest that the aircraft are remotely operated and that the method may have changed (and likely will change) over time.
In total, there were eleven documented An-2 ‘losses’ during the second Nargorno-Karabakh War. That said, satellite imagery shows that thirty-five An-2 aircraft disappeared from the Yevlakh air base between two satellite images taken only a few weeks before and after the war. Exactly how many An-2s have been deployed operationally and how many may have been ‘lost’ is unclear. The graph below, which is based on Google Earth imagery, shows a steep drop in the number of aircraft at the Azerbaijani air base during the conflict (the decrease in 2018 might be because of tests of unmanned An-2s). Since 2020, there have been no recorded Azerbaijani uses of unmanned An-2 aircraft, which matches with satellite imagery visualised in the graph. However, after two years of stagnation, the number of An-2 aircraft at Yevlakh air base is increasing towards pre-war levels.
Note: the 8 January 2021 image on Google Earth is not included because the date is wrongly formatted, likely because the air base is on the edge of the image
Conclusion
The mass-produced Antonov An-2 aircraft has a rich history in both civilian and military aviation history. However, as its old age increasingly makes it redundant in its traditional roles, Azerbaijan has transformed it into a drone to locate Armenian air defence systems. At least eleven, but possibly up to thirty-five, An-2 aircraft were deployed by Azerbaijan and subsequently shot down by Armenia during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. After two years of stagnation, the number of An-2s at Yevlakh air base in Azerbaijan has been increasing over the last few months. Although not (yet) at pre-war levels, it does indicate Azerbaijan still sees the An-2 as a useful platform in war and that the country might be getting ready for one.
Thank you
Thanks to SkyFi for the satellite images, Kyle Glen for allowing me to base this post on his thread about the An-2s, and thank you for reading this post! As always, feel free to reach out with your thoughts, questions and/or suggestions for future posts.
